Speaker
Description
The transformation of the European energy system is crucial for achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and meeting long-term energy policy objectives. This paper focuses on the Swiss energy transition and evaluates the sustainability and shock resilience of alternative national energy pathways. We propose an integrated evaluation framework with three main components: (i) the definition and analysis of long-term energy pathways for different configurations of the Swiss energy system, (ii) the identification and characterization of disruptive shocks that may divert these pathways from their strategic targets, and (iii) a multicriteria evaluation of the pathways that explicitly incorporates stakeholder and expert input. A detailed database of sustainability and resilience indicators is developed and quantified using outputs from energy and economic models, Life Cycle Assessment studies, and targeted surveys on sociopolitical, regulatory, and legislative aspects. These indicators serve as criteria in a PROMETHEE II-based MCDA model that ranks the long-term Swiss energy pathways. Preferences over the importance of the criteria are elicited from a broad and diverse group of stakeholders and experts through voting mechanisms grounded in social choice theory. Finally, the pathways are assessed with respect to their resilience to disruptive shocks, combining stakeholder judgments on the severity of shock scenarios and decision criteria, following the principles of Decision Theory. The proposed framework enhances the transparency, robustness, and inclusiveness of the evaluation process and supports a collaborative assessment of strategic choices for the Swiss energy transition.
| Keywords | Multicriteria Decision Aid; Group Decision Making; Decision Theory; Energy system resilience; Sustainability |
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| Participation in the SNSF Early-Stage Researcher Support and Award Scheme | I am submitting a regular presentation but do not wish to participate in the scheme. |