102nd Meeting of the EURO Working Group in Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding

LNG Port Criticality Assessment in the Global Shipping Network Using an ER‑Driven Multi‑Criteria Framework

Not scheduled

20m

Siemens Auditorium (HIT E 51) (ETH Zürich)

Discussion Paper

Speaker

Prof. Jian-Bo Yang (The University of Manchester)

Description

Maritime decarbonization has increased the strategic importance of liquefied natural gas (LNG) bunkering ports in supporting low-carbon shipping and resilient fuel supply chains. Existing studies often examine LNG demand, port selection, or network structure separately, limiting integrated identification of strategic ports. This study develops a hybrid framework combining AIS-based trajectory extraction, maritime network construction, centrality analysis, and Evidential Reasoning for multi-criteria decision-making under uncertainty. The AIS trajectory module extracts LNG vessel routes using the α-method and DBSCAN, enabling the construction of an undirected weighted LNG shipping network. The network assessment module characterizes port influence through four centrality measures that capture both local connectivity and global accessibility. Operational capacity, safety conditions, and strategic attributes are further incorporated into the evaluation system based on existing LNG bunkering and port selection studies. To address mixed quantitative and qualitative indicators as well as incomplete information, the Evidential Reasoning module aggregates multi-source evidence and generates robust port rankings under uncertainty. Applying the framework to AIS data from 780 LNG vessels and operational data from 85 LNG bunkering ports identifies the top five strategic ports as Singapore, Algeciras, Barcelona, Rotterdam, and Gibraltar. These ports demonstrate strong network centrality and favorable strategic attributes, supporting LNG infrastructure planning, maritime energy transition, and supply-chain resilience. Rankings show high consistency across methods, with Kendall coefficients above 0.96, providing reliable decision support for phased clean-fuel deployment and port investment prioritization.